No matter the outcome of the Wimbledon final between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, significant changes are expected in the race for the No. 1 spot in the PIF ATP Rankings.
As they enter the match, Sinner holds 11,330 points in the PIF ATP Live Rankings while Alcaraz has 8,600 points, giving Sinner a lead of 2,730 points. However, this advantage will shift depending on Sunday’s result.
Should Sinner win his first Wimbledon title, he will extend his lead to 3,430 points. Conversely, if Alcaraz secures his third consecutive victory at Wimbledon, he will narrow the gap to 2,030 points. The match outcome will cause a swing of 1,400 points.
At the start of Wimbledon, Sinner’s lead over Alcaraz was only 1,130 points. Last year, Alcaraz earned 2,000 points by winning the tournament while Sinner gained just 400 points after reaching the quarter-finals. This situation provided an opportunity for Sinner to increase his lead as World No. 1.
Regardless of who wins on Centre Court, the gap between them may not be as large as it appears. After Wimbledon and leading up to the US Open, Sinner must defend 3,200 points from last year’s victories in New York and Cincinnati and a quarter-final appearance in Canada. In contrast, Alcaraz only needs to defend 60 points during this period.
Even if Alcaraz loses at Wimbledon and trails by 3,430 points afterward, he can close in on Sinner over the next two months due to dropping significantly fewer points.
For now, both players are concentrating on adding another Grand Slam trophy to their achievements on Sunday. Will Alcaraz expand his Lexus ATP Head2Head series lead against Sinner to 9-4 or will Sinner avenge his previous loss at Roland Garros?